The Table below gives the approximate time that Returning Officers have told the Electoral Commission they hope that the count will be completed. They can never be sure. A ballot box may have been left in the back room and had to be found and the ballot papers and figures may not add up and have to be checked. It is possible to call for a recount in a local authority area but this is unlikely to happen and the whole country cannot be recounted if the result is close.
Papers only have to be sorted into two piles unlike the general election, when there may be five or six candidates, but, on the hand, this becomes a mechanical process and so may actually require more concentration from the counters to make sure papers do not go on the wrong pile.
The Region of each local authority is included so that it will be possible to keep track of how the first results from each region are going as an indicator as to how other local authorities in the region might vote. When local government in England was reorganised in the early 1970s some districts were given strange names because smaller towns that were being amalgamated into a large authority resented it being called after the biggest town. For these I have put the name of the biggest town or two biggest towns so that you have some idea as to where they are. The table gives the place of the local authority in the Eurosceptic Index with Havering the most Eurosceptic, and so 1, and Ceredigion the least Eurosceptic at 188. The YouGov data in parts of England is only for the whole county local authority such as Kent or Warwickshire and so the county number is given for each district in the table. For Northern Ireland there is a C or P to show whether the constituency has a majority Catholic or Protestant population. As the results come in it is worth looking to see which way local authorities with an index in the 70s and 80s are going as these are about in the middle range of Euroscepticism.
Sunderland is working hard to be the first area to declare, as it has in recent general elections. It will be important as a Labour city but less Eurosceptic than some of the surrounding areas and will point towards the North East vote. The other results predicted for now are Wandsworth, an inner London borough with a large professional population and Foyle, a Northern Ireland constituency with a large Catholic majority and both should be clearly for Remain.
The City of London is to declare. There is a small population here, in flat areas such as the Barbican, and with a professional population is likely to be strongly for remain.
Gibraltar is delaying its count to 11.00 local time, so as not to start before British polls close, and should produce a solid Remain majority. The other results due are Newcastle, Oldham and Swindon. The large northern cities have to vote Remain for that side to win and Newcastle must be a victory for them. Oldham is not as Europhile or prosperous as Manchester but is within its orbit and Remain will hope to win here too. It may give some indication as to how the Asian population is voting. The Swindon result will show if the New Towns really are Eurosceptic, despite their relative prosperity. It will be a pointer to Basildon, Crawley, Harlow, Redditch, Dacorum, Peterborough, Stevenage, Welwyn-Hatfield and Bracknell Forest. Northern Ireland results are coming in earlier than in general elections and West Tyrone is another mainly Catholic area.
Three Belfast results come in now. Belfast East is strongly Protestant Belfast West strongly Catholic and Belfast South has a small Catholic majority so this will show whether there is much difference in voting between the two communities. Hartlepool is the sort of smaller working class town that has not seen recent prosperity and if Leave lose here they may be in trouble, unless the North east votes in a different way to other regions.
A number of local authorities come in now. North Hertfordshire is the first Conservative area to declare and will show whether Cameron has secured enough of the Conservative vote for Remain to win. There are many similar areas across the South East. If it goes firmly either way then that will be an indicator as to which side as won, if it is close then we may not know the result for a long time. Merthyr Tydfil will show whether the Welsh Valleys are as clearly for Leave as the polls indicate. Wigan is another declining town like Hartlepool and Salford, next to Manchester, is similar to Oldham. The first Scottish results come in with Stirling, a university town, likely to be strongly pro Remain and Eilean Siar, the Outer Hebrides, an area that often behaves eccentrically in general elections but where there is a long standing SNP influence. The Isles of Scilly has a small population and, with the fishing industry being pro-Leave, is likely to vote that way. Strangford, Lagan Valley, North Down are Protestant dominated constituencies in Norther Ireland and Belfast South more mixed.
Denbighshire is difficult to predict with some rural areas where Plaid Cymru are strong and some seaside and urban areas.
A mixture of local authorities come in now and patterns should start to emerge. The new town area of Basildon may follow Swindon though South Essex has given strong support for UKIP anyway so may still go for Leave even if Swindon has gone the other way. Hart, Richmondshire and Malvern Hills are all relatively prosperous Conservative areas but in widely separated parts of the country and, with North Hertfordshire, should give an idea as to how these sorts of areas have voted. Westminster in central London and Oxford, as a university town but with a working class population in the eastern part, should both be Remain. Sandwell, South Tyneside and Wrexham are all poorer, ex-industrial areas and may go for Leave though Sandwell has a larger ethnic minority population. Blaenau Gwent is another Welsh Valley local authority and may vote Leave, while the Scottish authorities of Clackmannanshire and South Lanarkshire should be Remain. It will be interesting to see whether Neath Port Talbot on the South Wales coast is different from the Valleys but the steel industry problems may have an impact here. The Shetland Isles are a law unto themselves and may even see Brussels as an ally against Edinburgh. South Norfolk is the first East Anglian result and may be more for Leave than earlier Conservative local authorities. Ipswich may be less Eurosceptic than surrounding areas of East Anglia and will be a key result. Nuneaton and Bedworth, Tamworth and North Warwickshire are very much middle England both geographically and socially and marginal in party politics and so will be a good indicator of the final results, unless the West Midlands behaves differently to other regions.
From now on you should be able to see patterns for yourself and the commentators will start to interpret them. In the 2.30 group most local authorities are similar to ones already declared but North Dorset is the first South West authority and Lincoln the first from the East Midlands. If it still looks close then you need to stay up until after 5am. I went to bed on the night of the Welsh devolution vote convinced that the Assembly plan was defeated but then found that the last two rural authorities were so pro-devolution that it was won by a whisker. In the EU Referendum the big cities of Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool , Leicester and Bristol that Remain would hope to win are not likely to declare until after 5am and if they are strongly so then may tilt the balance the other way. If it is really so close that the last 20 smaller authorities decide the result then the arguments will start all over again as the result is not legally binding on Parliament.
Foyle |
Northern Ireland |
C |
Sunderland |
North East |
129 |
Wandsworth |
London |
135 |
City of London |
London |
No data |
Gibraltar |
||
Newcastle-upon -Tyne |
North East |
133 |
Oldham |
North West |
76 |
Swindon |
South-West |
12 |
West Tyrone |
Northern Ireland |
C |
Belfast East |
Norther Ireland |
P |
Belfast South |
Northern Ireland |
C |
Belfast West |
Northern Ireland |
C |
Hartlepool |
North East |
No data |
Belfast North |
Northern Ireland |
P |
Eilean Sair (Outer Hebrides) |
Scottish Highlands/Islands |
No data |
Isles of Scilly |
South West |
No data |
Lagan Valley |
Northern Ireland |
P |
Merthyr Tydfil |
South Wales |
No data |
North Down |
Northern Ireland |
P |
North Hertfordshire |
South East |
68 |
Salford |
North West |
95 |
Stirling |
Scotland |
186 |
Stockport |
North West |
134 |
Strangford |
Northern Ireland |
P |
Wigan |
North West |
50 |
Denbighshire |
North and Rural Wales |
126 |
Basildon |
South East |
39 (county) |
Blaenau Gwent |
South Wales |
No data |
Clackmannanshire |
Scotland |
No data |
Dover |
South East |
61 |
Ealing |
London |
42 |
Hart (Fleet) |
South East |
58 (county) |
Ipswich |
East Anglia |
22 (county) |
Malvern Hills |
West Midlands |
74 (county) |
Neath Port Talbot |
South Wales |
71 |
North Antrim |
Northern Ireland |
P |
North Tyneside |
North East |
106 |
North Warwickshire |
West Midlands |
82 (county) |
Nuneaton and Bedworth |
West Midlands |
82 (county) |
Oxford |
South East |
141 (county) |
Richmondshire |
Yorkshire |
70 (county) |
Sandwell |
West Midlands |
9 |
Shetland Isles |
Scottish Highlands/Islands |
No data |
South Lanarkshire |
Scotland |
171 |
South Norfolk |
East Anglia |
41 (county) |
South Tyneside |
North East |
8 |
Tamworth |
West Midlands |
18 (county) |
Upper Bann |
Northern Ireland |
P |
Westminster |
London |
173 |
Wrexham |
North and Rural Wales |
54 |
East Ayrshire |
Scotland |
120 |
Islington |
London |
132 |
Angus |
Scotland |
142 |
Barking and Dagenham |
London |
No data |
Barnet |
London |
136 |
Barrow-in-Furness |
North West |
10 (county) |
Broxbourne (Cheshunt) |
South East |
68 (county) |
Caerphilly |
South Wales |
125 |
Castle Point ( Canvey Island) |
South East |
39 (county) |
Conway |
North and Rural Wales |
91 |
Crawley |
South East |
69 (county) |
Darlington |
North East |
154 |
Dundee City |
Scotland |
158 |
East Antrim |
Northern Ireland |
P |
Harlow |
South East |
39 (county) |
Havant |
South East |
58 (county) |
Hertsmere (Borehamwood/Potters Bar) |
South East |
68 (county) |
High Peak |
Est Midlands |
88 (county) |
Hyndburn (Accrington) |
North West |
97 (county) |
Isle of Anglesey |
North and Rural Wales |
No data |
Lambeth |
London |
185 |
Lincoln |
East Midlands |
29 (county) |
Merton |
London |
179 |
North Dorset |
South West |
63 (county) |
North Lanarkshire |
Scotland |
127 |
Ribble Valley |
North West |
97 (county) |
Rugby |
West Midlands |
82 (county) |
Rushmoor (Aldershot) |
South East |
58 (county) |
South Antrim |
Northern Ireland |
P |
South Lakeland |
North West |
10 (county) |
St Helens |
North west |
150 |
Staffordshire Moorlands |
West Midlands |
18 (county) |
Swansea |
Scotland |
37 |
Woking |
South East |
75 (county) |
Falkirk |
Scotland |
153 |
Oadby and Wigston |
East Midlands |
59 (county) |
Wellingborough |
East Midlands |
15 (county) |
Babergh |
East Anglia |
22 (county) |
Barnsley |
Yorkshire |
11 |
Bolton |
North West |
94 |
Boston |
East Anglia |
29 (county) |
Bridgend |
South Wales |
146 |
Bury |
North West |
35 |
Cambridge |
East Anglia |
108 (county) |
Camden |
London |
184 |
Cannock Chase |
West Midlands |
18 (county) |
Charnwood (Loughborough) |
East Midlands |
59 (county) |
Chelmsford |
South East |
39 (county) |
Chesterfield |
East Midlands |
88 (county) |
Chorley |
North West |
97 (county) |
Colchester |
East Anglia |
39 (county) |
Copeland (Whitehaven) |
North West |
10 (county) |
Dacorum (Hemel Hempstead) |
South East |
68 (county) |
Durham |
North East |
87 (county) |
East Londonderry |
Northern Ireland |
P |
East Lothian |
Scotland |
131 |
East Renfrewshire |
Scotland |
168 |
Eastleigh |
South East |
58 (county) |
Enfield |
London |
124 |
Epsom and Ewell |
South East |
75 (county) |
Exeter |
South West |
79 (county) |
Fylde |
North West |
97 (county) |
Gosport |
South East |
58 (county) |
Gwynedd |
North and Rural Wales |
138 |
Haringey |
London |
172 |
Hastings |
South East |
69 (county) |
Inverclyde |
Scotland |
No data |
Knowsley |
North West |
No data |
Maidstone |
South East |
47 (county) |
Mid Suffolk |
East Anglia |
22 (county) |
Midlothian |
Scotland |
170 |
Milton Keynes |
South East |
14 |
Monmouth |
South Wales |
117 |
Moray |
Scottish Highlands and Islands |
109 |
Newham |
London |
115 |
North Ayrshire |
Scotland |
140 |
North Devon |
South West |
79 (county) |
North East Lincolnshire |
East Midlands |
40 |
North West Leicestershire |
East Midlands |
59 (county) |
Orkney Islands |
Scottish Highlands and Islands |
No data |
Pendle |
North West |
97 (county) |
Perth and Kinross |
Scottish Highlands and Islands |
176 |
Peterborough |
East Anglia |
2 |
Reading |
South East |
110 |
Renfrewshire |
Scotland |
166 |
Rochdale |
North West |
104 |
Runnymede |
South East |
75 (county) |
Sedgemoor (Bridgwater) |
South West |
24 (county) |
Shepway (Folkestone) |
South East |
47 (county) |
South Buckinghamshire |
South East |
45 (county) |
Southwark |
London |
182 |
St Albans |
South East |
68 (county) |
Stevenage |
South East |
68 (county) |
Stratford-upon-Avon |
West Midlands |
82 (county) |
Thanet |
South East |
47 (county) |
Torbay |
South West |
16 |
Torfaen |
South Wales |
No data |
Trafford |
North West |
156 |
Uttlesford (Saffron Walden) |
East Anglia |
39 (county) |
Warwick |
West Midlands |
82 (county) |
West Berkshire |
South East |
73 |
West Dunbarton |
Scotland |
183 |
West Oxfordshire |
South East |
141 (county) |
Weymouth |
South West |
63 (county) |
Wokingham |
South East |
92 |
Wycombe |
South East |
45 (county) |
Wyre (Fleetwood) |
North West |
97 (county) |
Hammersmith and Fulham |
London |
175 |
Sutton |
London |
123 |
Tandridge (Caterham/Lingfield) |
South East |
75 (county) |
Telford and Wrekin |
West Midlands |
17 |
Wrexham |
North and Rural Wales |
54 |
Aberdeen |
Scotland |
187 |
Barnet |
London |
136 |
Basingstoke and Deane |
South East |
58 (county) |
Bournemouth |
South West |
89 |
Brent |
London |
179 |
Burnley |
North West |
97 (county) |
Carlisle |
North West |
10 (county) |
Carmarthen |
North and Rural Wales |
99 |
Cheltenham |
South West |
101 (county) |
Dartford |
South East |
47 (county) |
Dudley |
West Midlands |
64 |
Dumfries and Galloway |
Scotland |
130 |
Edinburgh |
Scotland |
180 |
Epping Forest |
South East |
39 (county) |
Erewash (Ilkeston) |
East Midlands |
88 (county) |
Fermanagh and Tyrone |
Northern Ireland |
C |
Forest of Dean |
South West |
101 (county) |
Gateshead |
North East |
98 |
Gedling |
East Midlands |
48 (county) |
Greenwich |
London |
105 |
Halton |
North West |
65 |
Harrow |
London |
113 |
King’s Lynn and West Norfolk |
East Anglia |
41 (county) |
Hull |
Yorkshire |
|
Lancaster |
North West |
|
Melton |
East Midlands |
59 (county) |
Newark and Sherwood |
East Midlands |
48 (county) |
Newport |
South Wales |
36 |
Newry and Armagh |
Northern Ireland |
C |
Portsmouth |
South East |
80 |
Powys |
North and Rural Wales |
167 |
Preston |
North West |
97 (county) |
Purbeck |
South West |
63 (county) |
Redbridge |
London |
60 |
Redcar and Cleveland |
North East |
66 |
Rhondda Cynon Taff |
South Wales |
157 |
Rochford |
South East |
39 (county) |
Rossendale |
North West |
97 (county) |
Scarborough |
Yorkshire |
70 (county) |
South Derbyshire |
East Midlands |
88 (county) |
South Down |
Northern Ireland |
C |
South Hams (Dartmouth) |
South East |
79 (county) |
South Somerset |
South West |
24 (county) |
Southend-on-Sea |
South East |
6 |
Suffolk Coastal |
East Anglia |
22 (county) |
Surrey Heath |
South East |
75 (county) |
Taunton Deane |
South West |
24 (county) |
Three Rivers (Chorleywood/Rickmansworth) |
South East |
68 (county) |
Tower Hamlets |
London |
162 |
Walsall |
West Midlands |
121 |
Watford |
South East |
68 (county) |
West Lothian |
Scotland |
155 |
Worcester |
West Midlands |
74 (county) |
Corby |
East Midlands |
15 (county) |
Fife |
Scotland |
159 |
Allerdale (Workington) |
North West |
10 (county) |
Argyll and Bute |
Scottish Highlands and Islands |
174 |
Ashford |
South East |
47 (county) |
Bedford |
South East |
103 |
Birmingham |
West Midlands |
90 |
Blackburn with Darwen |
North West |
5 |
Blackpool |
North West |
4 |
Bolsover |
East Midlands |
88 (county) |
Breckland |
East Anglia |
41 (county) |
Brentwood |
South East |
39 (county) |
Brighton and Hove |
South East |
148 |
Bromley |
London |
53 |
Bromsgrove |
West Midlands |
74 (county) |
Canterbury |
South East |
47 (county) |
Cardiff |
South Wales |
169 |
Ceredigion |
North and Rural Wales |
188 |
Chiltern (Amersham/Chesham) |
South East |
45 (county) |
Craven (Skipton) |
Yorkshire |
70 (county) |
Croydon |
London |
118 |
Daventry |
East Midlands |
15 (county) |
Doncaster |
Yorkshire |
25 |
East Dunbartonshire |
Scotland |
151 |
East Riding |
Yorkshire |
77 |
Eastbourne |
South East |
69 (county) |
Elmbridge (Esher/Weybridge) |
South East |
75 (county) |
Fareham |
South East |
58 (county) |
Forest Heath (Newmarket) |
East Anglia |
22 (county) |
Gloucester |
South West |
101 (county) |
Hambleton (Northallerton/Thirsk) |
Yorkshire |
70 (county) |
Harrogate |
Yorkshire |
70 (county) |
Havering |
London |
1 |
Horsham |
South East |
38 (county) |
Huntingdon |
East Anglia |
108 (county) |
Lewes |
South East |
69 (county) |
Lewisham |
London |
116 |
Lichfield |
West Midlands |
18 (county) |
Mansfield |
East Midlands |
48 (county) |
Mendip |
South West |
24 (county) |
Mid Ulster |
Northern Ireland |
C |
Mole Valley (Dorking) |
South East |
75 (county) |
Newcastle-under-Lyme |
West Midlands |
18 (county) |
Norwich |
East Anglia |
41 (county) |
Pembroke |
North and Rural Wales |
102 |
Redditch |
West Midlands |
74 (county) |
Rother (Bexhill) |
South East |
69 (county) |
Rushcliffe |
East Midlands |
48 (county) |
Scottish Borders |
Scotland |
147 |
Selby |
Yorkshire |
70 (county) |
Sevenoaks |
South east |
47 (county) |
Solihull |
West Midlands |
20 |
South Cambridgeshire |
East Anglia |
108 (county) |
South Ribble |
North West |
97 (county) |
South Staffordshire |
West Midlands |
18 (county) |
Southampton |
South East |
137 |
St Edmundsbury (Bury St Edmunds) |
East Anglia |
22 (county) |
Stafford |
West Midlands |
18 (county) |
Stoke-on-Trent |
West Midlands |
122 |
Stroud |
South West |
101 (county) |
Swale (Faversham) |
South East |
47 (county) |
Tendring (Clacton) |
South East |
39 (county) |
Test Valley (Andover) |
South East |
58 (county) |
Tonbridge and Malling |
South East |
47 (county) |
Wakefield |
Yorkshire |
100 |
Waltham Forest |
London |
114 |
Waverley (Farnham) |
South East |
75 (county) |
West Dorset |
South West |
63 (county) |
West Lancashire |
North West |
97 (county) |
Wirral |
North West |
149 |
Wolverhampton |
West Midlands |
46 |
Wyre Forest (Kidderminster) |
West Midlands |
74 (county) |
York |
Yorkshire |
163 |
Ashford |
South East |
47 (county) |
Aylesbury Vale |
South East |
45 (county) |
Bassetlaw |
East Midlands |
48 (county) |
Bexley |
London |
61 |
Chichester |
South East |
38 (county) |
Christchurch |
South West |
58 (county) |
East Dorset |
South West |
63 (county) |
Eden (Penrith) |
North West |
10 (county) |
Great Yarmouth |
East Anglia |
41 (county) |
Hackney |
London |
181 |
Isle of Wight |
South East |
31 |
Kingston-upon-Thames |
London |
84 |
Middlesbrough |
North East |
No data |
North East Derbyshire |
East Midlands |
88 (county) |
North Lincolnshire |
East Midlands |
49 |
Northumberland |
North East |
67 |
Poole |
South West |
62 |
Sheffield |
Yorkshire |
119 |
South Oxfordshire |
South East |
141 (county) |
Spelthorne |
South East |
75 (county) |
Stockton-on-Tees |
North East |
30 |
Teignbridge |
South West |
79 (county) |
Tewkesbury |
South West |
101 (county) |
Warrington |
North West |
7 |
Welwyn Hatfield |
South East |
68 (county) |
Wiltshire |
South West |
96 |
Kirklees |
Yorkshire |
86 |
Aberdeenshire |
Scottish Highlands and Islands |
143 |
Amber Valley |
East Midlands |
88 (county) |
Blaby |
East Midlands |
59 (county) |
Bradford |
Yorkshire |
13 |
Calderdale (Halifax) |
Yorkshire |
145 |
Central Bedfordshire |
South East |
19 |
Cheshire West |
North West |
111 |
Coventry |
West Midlands |
43 |
Derby |
East Midlands |
88 (county) |
East Cambridgeshire |
East Anglia |
72 |
East Devon |
South West |
79 (county) |
Glasgow |
Scotland |
177 |
Gravesham |
South East |
47 (county) |
Highlands |
Scottish Highlands and Islands |
161 |
Hillingdon |
London |
57 |
Hounslow |
London |
85 |
Kensington and Chelsea |
London |
No data |
Kettering |
East Midlands |
15 (county) |
Leeds |
Yorkshire |
144 |
Liverpool |
North West |
164 |
Luton |
South East |
21 |
Manchester |
North West |
160 |
North Kesteven |
East Midlands |
29 (county) |
Plymouth |
South West |
23 |
Richmond-upon-Thames |
London |
112 |
Slough |
South East |
No data |
South Ayrshire |
Scotland |
152 |
South Holland (Spalding) |
East Anglia |
29 (county) |
Tameside (Ashton/Stalybridge) |
North West |
34 |
Torridge (Bideford) |
South West |
79 (county) |
West Devon |
South West |
79 (county) |
West Lindsey (Gainsborough) |
East Midlands |
29 (county) |
Wychavon (Droitwich/Evsham) |
West Midlands |
74 (county) |
Cotswold (Cirencester) |
South West |
101 (county) |
Derbyshire Dales |
East Midlands |
88 (county) |
Fenland (Wisbech) |
East Anglia |
108 (county) |
Guildford |
South East |
75 (county) |
North Norfolk |
East Anglia |
41 (county) |
Reigate and Banstead |
South East |
75 (county) |
South Gloucestershire |
South West |
81 |
Bath and NE Somerset |
South West |
107 |
Bristol |
South West |
165 |
Cherwell (Banbury) |
South East |
141 (county) |
Cornwall |
South west |
44 |
East Lindsey (Louth/Horncastle) |
East Midlands |
29 (county) |
East Northamptonshire |
East Midlands |
15 (county) |
Hinckley and Bosworth |
East Midlands |
59 (county) |
Maldon |
South East |
39 (county) |
Medway |
South East |
56 |
Northampton |
East Midlands |
15 (county) |
Windsor and Maidenhead |
South East |
93 |
Rutland |
East Midlands |
No data |
Sefton (Bootle/Southport) |
North West |
33 |
Shropshire |
West Midlands |
51 |
South Kesteven (Grantham) |
East Anglia |
29 (county) |
South Northamptonshire |
East Midlands |
15 (county) |
Wealden (Uckfield/Crowborough) |
South East |
69 (county) |
Adur (Shoreham/Lancing) |
South East |
38 (county) |
Herefordshire |
West Midlands |
55 |
Leicester |
East Midlands |
128 |
North Somerset (Weston-super-Mare) |
South West |
28 |
Nottingham |
East Midlands |
139 |
Winchester |
South East |
58 (county) |
Worthing |
South East |
38 (county) |
Arun (Bognor Regis/Littlehampton) |
South East |
38 (county) |
Cheshire East |
North West |
78 |
Harborough |
East Midlands |
59 (county) |
Waveney (Lowesftoft) |
East Anglia |
22 (county) |